Título: Mobility Analysis on 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic
Palestrante: Leonardo Bacelar (Cemaden)
BACKGROUND: The inter-cities mobility network serves as a proxy for the SARS-CoV-2 spreading network in a country. OBJECTIVE: to investigate the correspondences between the structure of the mobility network and the emergence of COVID-19 cases in Brazilian cities. METHODS: we adopt the data from the Brazilian Health Ministry and the terrestrial flow of people between cities from the IBGE database in two scales: Brazilian cities without the North region and cities from the Sao Paulo state. Grounded on the complex networks approach, cities are represented as nodes and the flows as edges. Network centrality measures such as strength and degree are ranked and compared to the list of Brazilian cities, ordered according to the day that they confirmed the first case of COVID-19. FINDINGS: The strength presents the best correspondences and the interiorization process of SARS-CoV-2 is captured in the Sao Paulo state when different thresholds are applied to the network flows. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: the strength captures the cities with a higher vulnerability of receiving new cases of COVID-19. Some countryside cities such as Feira de Santana (Bahia state), Ribeirao Preto (Sao Paulo state), and Caruaru (Pernambuco state) have strength comparable to states’ capitals, making them potential super spreaders.